CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-13T00:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-13T00:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28127/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen directed towards the NW in all coronagraphs. Source is a C2.8 flare from AR 3514 which peaked at 2023-12-12T22:55Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131, and an associated dimming region starting at 2023-12-12T22:30Z best observed in SDO AIA 193/211. The dimming regions spans approximately W12->W26 and N11->S10, with the most dimming occurring centered around N06W19. A double ribbon flare/surface brightening is observed in this same region in SDO AIA 304, along with a small post-eruptive arcade that begins at the same time as the eruption. Clear arrival signature: A clear shock signature with a sharp increase in B total to initially 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T10:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T20:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 696.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 423.528 Acceleration: 1.36836 Duration in seconds: 246287.94 Duration in days: 2.8505549 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.37 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 760.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 15/12/2023 Time: 20:24 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 15.85 hour(s)
Difference: -9.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-12-14T19:06Z
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